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This study considered regional forest policies for sequestering carbon in existing
forests in western Oregon. A model of log markets in western Oregon was employed to
examine the impacts of forest policy changes on future carbon stock, harvests, and
management activities. A carbon tax program, as a mitigation option for encouraging
forest carbon sequestration, would lead to reduced harvest and increased carbon stock in
timber inventory. Changes in the level of silvicultural investments vary by owner,
depending on the nature of their initial inventory. In general investment under the tax is
concentrated in regimes that establish faster growing plantations. Average rotation age
increases, varying in extent across ownerships and site qualities. The carbon tax reduces
both consumer and producer surpluses in regional timber markets. Producers are
compensated by the carbon subsidies, except at low carbon tax levels. Estimates of the
marginal cost of sequestering carbon in western Oregon private forests are shown to be
within the range of costs for projects considering afforestation alone in some eastern
regions of the United States. If the carbon tax system takes into account carbon in forest
products and woody residue, the marginal costs of carbon sequestration rise substantially
because of the trade-offs between carbon in the timber inventory and in product and
residue pools. Raising timber harvest from western Oregon federal timberlands would
cause a reduction in regional carbon flux in forests and forest products. Projections of
harvests by ownership given a constraint or target for regional carbon flux show that
there are significant opportunities for substituting timber harvest and carbon sequestration
between federal and non-federal lands in western Oregon. A relatively small reduction in
non-federal harvest would offset a substantial loss of carbon flux in federal timberlands.
The same carbon flux levels obtained in the carbon target scenarios could be achieved if a
carbon offset market were available for all owners including federal agencies. The
marginal welfare cost derived from the shadow price of the carbon target constraint is the
market price of carbon that could produce the same flux as the constraint. The analysis
indicates that only modest carbon prices would be needed (< $15/tonne C) to maintain
regional forest carbon flux at current (ca 2005) rates. |
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