Description:
A practical demonstration of a method for
rating forest stands as to their probability of
defoliation by the Douglas-fir tussock moth
using aerial photographs and available cruise
data was done in the Palouse Ranger District,
Clearwater National Forest, Idaho.
A nonlinear computer program, RISK, was used to
identify significant independent variables for
the prediction of probability of defoliation
(dependent variable). A hazard rating model
developed in the Blue Mountains of Oregon and
Washington was localized for the Palouse
District using data collected from previously
established plots. Data for the Palouse RD
hazard rating were obtained from Stand
Examination and Management Status Records,
aerial photos, topographic maps, and Orthophoto
Quadrangles.
Four final hazard rating models were developed
using various combinations of the following
independent variables: elevation, slope,
cosine of the aspect times the tangent of the
slope, sine of the aspect times the tangent of
the slope, topographic position, stand level,
stand density, presence of volcanic ash in the
soil, stand age, and percent host species.
Hazard ratings which indicate the probabilities
of a stand being defoliated during a tussock
moth outbreak ware computed for 496 forest
stands, and stands were color-coded on a map by
probability of defoliation classes.