DSpace Repository

Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR

Show simple item record

dc.creator Forbes, Kristin J.
dc.creator Abeysinghe, Tilak
dc.date 2002-06-05T20:40:52Z
dc.date 2002-06-05T20:40:52Z
dc.date 2002-06-05T20:41:01Z
dc.date.accessioned 2013-05-31T14:04:34Z
dc.date.available 2013-05-31T14:04:34Z
dc.date.issued 2013-05-31
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/669
dc.identifier.uri http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/jspui/handle/1721
dc.description This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country can affect the GDP of other countries. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output fluctuations. The paper introduces a new specification strategy that significantly reduces the number of unknowns and allows cross-country relationships to vary over time. Then it uses this model to examine the impact of shocks to 11 Asian countries, the U.S. and the rest of the OECD. The model produces reasonably good short-term forecasts. Impulse-response matrices suggest that these multiplier effects are large and significant and can transmit shocks in very different patterns than predicted from a bilateral-trade matrix. For example, due to these output-multiplier effects, a shock to one country can have a large impact on countries that are relatively minor bilateral trading partners.
dc.format 378711 bytes
dc.format application/pdf
dc.language en_US
dc.relation MIT Sloan School of Management Working Paper;4242-01
dc.subject Trade linkages
dc.subject Output-Multiplier Effects
dc.subject VAR
dc.title Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR

Files in this item

Files Size Format View

There are no files associated with this item.

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Search DSpace

Advanced Search


My Account