Description:
This article provides a new test of the predictive ability of aggregate financial ratios.
Predictive regressions are subject to small-sample biases, but the correction in
previous studies can substantially understate forecasting power. Dividend yield
predicts aggregate market returns from 1946 – 2000, as well as in various subperiods.
Book-to-market and the earnings-price ratio predict returns during the shorter 1963 –
2000 sample. The evidence remains strong despite the unusual price run-up in recent
years