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Skill or Luck? Biases of Rational Agents

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dc.creator Eric, Van den Steen
dc.date 2002-08-09T19:17:38Z
dc.date 2002-08-09T19:17:38Z
dc.date 2002-08-09T19:17:50Z
dc.date.accessioned 2013-05-31T18:32:34Z
dc.date.available 2013-05-31T18:32:34Z
dc.date.issued 2013-06-01
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/1569
dc.identifier.uri http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/jspui/handle/1721
dc.description This paper shows why, in a world with differing priors, rational agents tend to attribute their own success more to skill and their failure more to bad luck than an outsider. It further shows why each agent in a group might think he or she is the best, why an agent might overestimate the control he has over the outcome, and why two agents' estimated contributions often add up to more than 100%. Underlying all these phenomena is a simple and robust mechanism that endogenously generates overoptimism about one's own actions. The paper also shows how these biases hinder learning and discusses some implications for organizations.
dc.format 493511 bytes
dc.format application/pdf
dc.language en_US
dc.relation MIT Sloan School of Management Working Paper;4255-02
dc.subject Success
dc.subject Failure
dc.subject Attribution and Inference Bias
dc.subject Rational Agents
dc.title Skill or Luck? Biases of Rational Agents


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