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From transition crises to marcoeconomic stability? : lessons from a crisesearly warning system for Eastern European and CIS countries

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dc.creator Kittelmann, Kristina
dc.creator Tirpak, Marcel
dc.creator Schweickert, Rainer
dc.creator Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio
dc.date 2006
dc.date.accessioned 2013-10-16T06:12:38Z
dc.date.available 2013-10-16T06:12:38Z
dc.date.issued 2013-10-16
dc.identifier Comparative economic studies 0360-5930 48 2006 3 410-434
dc.identifier doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100162
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/10419/3908
dc.identifier ppn:519365194
dc.identifier.uri http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/3908
dc.description This paper uses a Markov regime-switching model to assess the vulnerability of a series of Central and Eastern European countries (ie Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic) and two CIS countries (ie, Russia and Ukraine) during the period 1993-2004. For the new EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe, the results of our model show that the majority of crises in those countries can be explained by inconsistencies in the domestic policy mix and by the deterioration of macroeconomic fundamentals, as emphasised by first-generation crises models, while for the CIS countries analysed, financial vulnerability type indicators were the most relevant, that is, indicators connected with the second- and third-generation of crisis model better explain the vulnerability of these countries. Additionally, the set of indicators chosen by our model is rather heterogeneous, supporting the superiority of a country-by-country approach.
dc.language eng
dc.rights http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen
dc.subject ddc:330
dc.subject Währungskrise
dc.subject Frühwarnsystem
dc.subject Markovscher Prozess
dc.subject Schätzung
dc.subject Tschechische Republik
dc.subject Ungarn
dc.subject Slowakei
dc.subject Russland
dc.subject Ukraine
dc.title From transition crises to marcoeconomic stability? : lessons from a crisesearly warning system for Eastern European and CIS countries
dc.type doc-type:article


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