المستودع الأكاديمي جامعة المدينة

Central bank forecasts and disclosure policy: Why it pays to be optimistic

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dc.creator Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W.
dc.creator Tesfaselassie, Mewael F.
dc.date 2005
dc.date.accessioned 2013-10-16T06:05:41Z
dc.date.available 2013-10-16T06:05:41Z
dc.date.issued 2013-10-16
dc.identifier Discussion paper Centre for Economic Policy Research, London 4854
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/10419/3460
dc.identifier ppn:479711925
dc.identifier.uri http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/3460
dc.description In a simple macromodel with forward-looking expectations, this Paper looks into disclosure policy when a central bank has private information on future shocks. The main result is that advance disclosure of forecasts of future shocks does not improve welfare, and in some cases is not desirable as it impairs stabilization of current inflation and/or output. This result holds when there is no credibility problem or the central bank’s preference is common knowledge. When there is uncertainty about the central bank’s preference shock, and this uncertainty is not resolved in the subsequent period, advance disclosure does not matter for current outcomes. The reason lies in the strong dependence of one-period-ahead private sector inflation forecasts on central bank actions, which induces the central bank to focus exclusively on price stability in subsequent periods. Another implication of the model is that, in contrast to forecasts of current period shocks emphasizing by the literature, forecasts of future shocks may not be revealed to the public by current policy choices because the central bank refrains from responding to its own forecasts.
dc.language eng
dc.publisher Centre for Economic Policy Research, London
dc.relation CEPR Discussion paper series / Centre for Economic Policy Research 4854
dc.rights http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen
dc.subject E42
dc.subject E43
dc.subject E52
dc.subject E58
dc.subject ddc:330
dc.subject Zentralbank
dc.subject Wirtschaftsprognose
dc.subject Öffentlichkeitsarbeit
dc.subject Informationsverbreitung
dc.subject Gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion
dc.title Central bank forecasts and disclosure policy: Why it pays to be optimistic
dc.type doc-type:workingPaper


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