المستودع الأكاديمي جامعة المدينة

Pro-poor growth in Bolivia : accounting for external shocks and policy reforms

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dc.creator Lay, Jann
dc.creator Thiele, Rainer
dc.creator Wiebelt, Manfred
dc.date 2004
dc.date.accessioned 2013-10-16T06:05:19Z
dc.date.available 2013-10-16T06:05:19Z
dc.date.issued 2013-10-16
dc.identifier Kiel working paper Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel 1231
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/10419/3394
dc.identifier ppn:47232165X
dc.identifier ppn:47232165X
dc.identifier.uri http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/3394
dc.description This paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivia?s ability to achieve pro-poor growth. Employing a recursive-dynamic CGE model, it considers three different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario that roughly extrapolates the situation prevailing before the onset of the recent economic crisis; a more realistic scenario that accounts for two important negative external shocks (declining capital inflows and El Ni?o); and a scenario that captures the combined effect of the shocks and two major reform projects (development of the gas sector and deregulation of the urban labor market). It turns out that the shocks have not only contributed to the economic crisis, but that they are also likely to impair Bolivia?s medium-term development prospects, leading to marked increases in both urban and rural poverty. If the reform projects were implemented, their impact on growth would be large enough to slightly overcompensate the impact of the negative external shocks. The poverty increase caused by the shocks would be more than offset for urban households, but reinforced for rural households.
dc.language eng
dc.publisher Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Kiel
dc.relation Kieler Arbeitspapiere 1231
dc.rights http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen
dc.subject D58
dc.subject O54
dc.subject ddc:330
dc.subject Pro-poor Growth , CGE Analysis , Bolivia
dc.subject Wirtschaftsreform
dc.subject Schock
dc.subject Armut
dc.subject Wirtschaftswachstum
dc.subject Allgemeines Gleichgewicht
dc.subject Schätzung
dc.subject Bolivien
dc.title Pro-poor growth in Bolivia : accounting for external shocks and policy reforms
dc.type doc-type:workingPaper


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