المستودع الأكاديمي جامعة المدينة

Macroeconomic interval forecasting : the case of assessing the risk of deflation in Germany

أعرض تسجيلة المادة بشكل مبسط

dc.creator Borbély, Dóra
dc.creator Meier, Carsten-Patrick
dc.date 2003
dc.date.accessioned 2013-10-16T06:23:46Z
dc.date.available 2013-10-16T06:23:46Z
dc.date.issued 2013-10-16
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/10419/2955
dc.identifier ppn:362671850
dc.identifier ppn:362671850
dc.identifier.uri http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/2955
dc.description This paper proposes an approach for estimating the uncertainty associated with model-based macroeconomic forecasts. We argue that estimated forecast intervals should account for the uncertainty arising from selecting the specification of an empirical forecasting model from the sample data. To allow this uncertainty to be considered systematically, we formalize a model selection procedure that specifies the lag structure of a model and accounts for aberrant observations. The procedure can be used to bootstrap the complete model selection process when estimating forecast intervals. We apply the procedure to assess the risk of deflationary developments occurring in Germany over the next four years.
dc.language eng
dc.publisher Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Kiel
dc.relation Kieler Arbeitspapiere 1153
dc.rights http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen
dc.subject E0
dc.subject E5
dc.subject C5
dc.subject ddc:330
dc.subject model selection
dc.subject forecasting prediction intervals
dc.subject bootstrapping
dc.subject deflation
dc.subject Konjunkturprognose
dc.subject Prognoseverfahren
dc.subject Ökonometrisches Makromodell
dc.subject Deflation
dc.subject Phillips-Kurve
dc.subject Schätzung
dc.subject Deutschland
dc.title Macroeconomic interval forecasting : the case of assessing the risk of deflation in Germany
dc.type doc-type:workingPaper


الملفات في هذه المادة

الملفات الحجم الصيغة عرض

لا توجد أي ملفات مرتبطة بهذه المادة.

هذه المادة تبدو في المجموعات التالية:

أعرض تسجيلة المادة بشكل مبسط