| dc.creator |
Sawischlewski, Katja |
|
| dc.creator |
Menkhoff, Lukas |
|
| dc.creator |
Beckmann, Daniela |
|
| dc.date |
2005 |
|
| dc.date.accessioned |
2013-10-16T07:06:51Z |
|
| dc.date.available |
2013-10-16T07:06:51Z |
|
| dc.date.issued |
2013-10-16 |
|
| dc.identifier |
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19796 |
|
| dc.identifier |
ppn:500741735 |
|
| dc.identifier |
RePEc:zbw:gdec05:3476 |
|
| dc.identifier.uri |
http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/19796 |
|
| dc.description |
Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Keeping this in mind, five lessons emerge : First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent crises. Second, among competing crisis definitions there is one which is most practical. Third, take a logit model to condense information from various fundamental variables. Fourth, add a regional contagion dummy to the standard set of variables. Fifth, one may be tempted to address instability over time and countries by taking shorter samples and regional EWSs. |
|
| dc.language |
eng |
|
| dc.publisher |
|
|
| dc.relation |
Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 / Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics 3 |
|
| dc.rights |
http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen |
|
| dc.subject |
F31 |
|
| dc.subject |
F33 |
|
| dc.subject |
F37 |
|
| dc.subject |
ddc:330 |
|
| dc.subject |
early warning system |
|
| dc.subject |
currency crises |
|
| dc.subject |
emerging markets |
|
| dc.title |
Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems |
|
| dc.type |
doc-type:conferenceObject |
|