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Political risk and export promotion: evidence from Germany

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dc.creator Moser, Christoph
dc.creator Nestmann, Thorsten
dc.creator Wedow, Michael
dc.date 2006
dc.date.accessioned 2013-10-16T07:06:11Z
dc.date.available 2013-10-16T07:06:11Z
dc.date.issued 2013-10-16
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19665
dc.identifier ppn:520241355
dc.identifier RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:5110
dc.identifier.uri http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/19665
dc.description Political risk represents an important hidden transaction cost that reduces international trade. This paper investigates the claim that German public export credit guarantees (Hermes guarantees) mitigate this friction to trade flows and hence promote exports. We employ an empirical trade gravity model, where we explicitly control for political risk in the importing country in order to evaluate the effect of export guarantees. The idea behind export promotion through public export credit agencies (ECAs) is that the private market is unable to provide adequate insurance for all risks associated with exports. As a consequence, firms' export activities are limited in the absence of insurance provision. Using a novel data set on guarantees we estimate the effect of guarantees in a static and dynamic panel model. We find a statistically and economically significant positive effect of public export guarantees on exports which indicates that export promotion is indeed effective. Furthermore, political risk turns out to be a robust determinant of exports and hence should be taken into account in any empirical model of trade.
dc.language eng
dc.relation Discussion paper Series 1 / Volkswirtschaftliches Forschungszentrum der Deutschen Bundesbank 2006,36
dc.rights http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen
dc.subject C23
dc.subject H81
dc.subject F13
dc.subject ddc:330
dc.subject public export credit guarantees
dc.subject political risk
dc.subject panel regression
dc.subject Exportgarantie
dc.subject Wirtschaftspolitische Wirkungsanalyse
dc.subject Export
dc.subject Schätzung
dc.subject Deutschland
dc.subject Länderrisiko
dc.subject Welt
dc.title Political risk and export promotion: evidence from Germany
dc.type doc-type:workingPaper


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