| dc.creator |
Erber, Georg |
|
| dc.creator |
Fritsche, Ulrich |
|
| dc.date |
2005 |
|
| dc.date.accessioned |
2013-10-16T06:59:29Z |
|
| dc.date.available |
2013-10-16T06:59:29Z |
|
| dc.date.issued |
2013-10-16 |
|
| dc.identifier |
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18322 |
|
| dc.identifier |
ppn:481682031 |
|
| dc.identifier.uri |
http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/18322 |
|
| dc.description |
This paper addresses the issue of estimating and forecasting productivity growth trends in the US and Germany from the perspective of a business cycle researcher who wants to use the available information in time series of aggregate labor productivity to derive a model for short- and/or long-term forecasts of labour productivity. We will use stability tests and a deterministic model with structural breaks that is estimated using the methods mentioned in Hansen (2001). The methodological approach also draws on Gordon (2003) using a Kalman filter specification. We discuss the implications of unit-root assumptions for long-term forecasts and argue in favor of a near unit-root modelling. That implies a convergence of productivity growth rates in both countries within the next 15 years. |
|
| dc.language |
eng |
|
| dc.publisher |
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Berlin |
|
| dc.relation |
DIW-Diskussionspapiere 471 |
|
| dc.rights |
http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen |
|
| dc.subject |
E24 |
|
| dc.subject |
C22 |
|
| dc.subject |
E23 |
|
| dc.subject |
C32 |
|
| dc.subject |
E37 |
|
| dc.subject |
E30 |
|
| dc.subject |
ddc:330 |
|
| dc.title |
Estimating and Forecasting Aggregate Productivity Growth Trends in the US and Germany |
|
| dc.type |
doc-type:workingPaper |
|