| dc.creator |
Fritsche, Ulrich |
|
| dc.creator |
Kouzine, Vladimir |
|
| dc.date |
2002 |
|
| dc.date.accessioned |
2013-10-16T06:58:03Z |
|
| dc.date.available |
2013-10-16T06:58:03Z |
|
| dc.date.issued |
2013-10-16 |
|
| dc.identifier |
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18050 |
|
| dc.identifier |
ppn:367006200 |
|
| dc.identifier.uri |
http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/18050 |
|
| dc.description |
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching models were taken into consideration. The overall results indicate that the interest rate spread, the long-term interest rate as well as some monetary indicators and some survey indicators can help predicting turning points of the business cycle. |
|
| dc.language |
eng |
|
| dc.publisher |
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Berlin |
|
| dc.relation |
DIW-Diskussionspapiere 314 |
|
| dc.rights |
http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen |
|
| dc.subject |
C22 |
|
| dc.subject |
E32 |
|
| dc.subject |
C25 |
|
| dc.subject |
ddc:330 |
|
| dc.subject |
Business cycle |
|
| dc.subject |
leading indicators |
|
| dc.subject |
probit model |
|
| dc.subject |
McFadden's R2 |
|
| dc.subject |
Markov switching models |
|
| dc.subject |
Konjunkturindikator |
|
| dc.subject |
Konjunkturprognose |
|
| dc.subject |
Prognoseverfahren |
|
| dc.subject |
Schätzung |
|
| dc.subject |
Deutschland |
|
| dc.title |
Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany? |
|
| dc.type |
doc-type:workingPaper |
|