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Do News Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from German Data

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dc.creator Lucke, Bernd
dc.creator Haertel, Thomas
dc.date 2008
dc.date.accessioned 2013-10-16T06:57:58Z
dc.date.available 2013-10-16T06:57:58Z
dc.date.issued 2013-10-16
dc.identifier Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 2 2008-10 1-21 doi:10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2008-10
dc.identifier doi:10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2008-10
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18023
dc.identifier ppn:560132441
dc.identifier http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2008-10
dc.identifier RePEc:zbw:ifweej:7127
dc.identifier.uri http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/18023
dc.description We study the Beaudry and Portier (2006)-hypothesis of delayed-technology diffusion and news-driven business cycles. For German data on TFP and stock prices we find qualitatively similar empirical evidence. Quantitatively, however, an impulse response analysis suggests that a substantial part of the total TFP response is immediate rather than delayed. We relate this to disembodied technological change and noisy data on TFP. Nevertheless, we confirm the technology interpretation of structural shocks by showing that they are Granger-causal for data on patents granted by the German patent agency. We also show that these shocks generate comovement of macro variables at business cycle horizons and account for a sizable share of the forecast error variance of these variables in the medium and long run.
dc.language eng
dc.publisher Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Kiel
dc.relation economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 2008-10
dc.rights http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/de/deed.en
dc.subject E32
dc.subject ddc:330
dc.subject News
dc.subject business cycles
dc.subject TFP
dc.subject structural VAR
dc.subject Technischer Fortschritt
dc.subject Produktivität
dc.subject Informationsverbreitung
dc.subject Schock
dc.subject Konjunktur
dc.subject VAR-Modell
dc.subject Kausalanalyse
dc.subject Deutschland
dc.title Do News Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from German Data
dc.type doc-type:article
dc.coverage 1970-2005


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