| dc.contributor |
Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E7HT, UK. francesco.checchi@lshtm.ac.uk |
|
| dc.creator |
Checchi, F |
|
| dc.creator |
Filipe, J A N |
|
| dc.creator |
Haydon, D T |
|
| dc.creator |
Chandramohan, D |
|
| dc.creator |
Chappuis, F |
|
| dc.date |
2008-02-08 |
|
| dc.date.accessioned |
2017-01-31T07:11:29Z |
|
| dc.date.available |
2017-01-31T07:11:29Z |
|
| dc.identifier |
Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness. 2008, 8:16 BMC Infect. Dis. |
|
| dc.identifier |
1471-2334 |
|
| dc.identifier |
18261232 |
|
| dc.identifier |
10.1186/1471-2334-8-16 |
|
| dc.identifier |
http://hdl.handle.net/10144/29898 |
|
| dc.identifier |
http://fieldresearch.msf.org/msf/handle/10144/29898 |
|
| dc.identifier |
BMC Infectious Diseases |
|
| dc.identifier.uri |
http://dspace.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10144/29898 |
|
| dc.description |
BACKGROUND: The durations of untreated stage 1 (early stage, haemo-lymphatic) and stage 2 (late stage, meningo-encephalitic) human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) due to Trypanosoma brucei gambiense are poorly quantified, but key to predicting the impact of screening on transmission. Here, we outline a method to estimate these parameters. METHODS: We first model the duration of stage 1 through survival analysis of untreated serological suspects detected during Médecins Sans Frontières interventions in Uganda and Sudan. We then deduce the duration of stage 2 based on the stage 1 to stage 2 ratio observed during active case detection in villages within the same sites. RESULTS: Survival in stage 1 appears to decay exponentially (daily rate = 0.0019; mean stage 1 duration = 526 days [95%CI 357 to 833]), possibly explaining past reports of abnormally long duration. Assuming epidemiological equilibrium, we estimate a similar duration of stage 2 (500 days [95%CI 345 to 769]), for a total of nearly three years in the absence of treatment. CONCLUSION: Robust estimates of these basic epidemiological parameters are essential to formulating a quantitative understanding of sleeping sickness dynamics, and will facilitate the evaluation of different possible control strategies. |
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| dc.language |
en |
|
| dc.publisher |
BioMed Central |
|
| dc.rights |
Archived with thanks to BMC Infectious Diseases by open access permission. |
|
| dc.title |
Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness. |
|