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http://dspace.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/19057| Title: | Electoral uncertainty, fiscal policy and macroeconomic fluctuations |
| Keywords: | E6 D9 H5 H1 ddc:330 political uncertainty business cycles & growth optimal policy hybrid maximum likelihood estimation Wahlverhalten Finanzpolitik Politischer Konjunkturzyklus Schätzung Theorie USA |
| Issue Date: | 16-Oct-2013 |
| Publisher: | |
| Description: | In this paper we study the link between elections, fiscal policy and aggregate fluctuations. The set-up is a stylized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model incorporating both technology and political re-election shocks. The later are incorporated via a two-party model with elections. The main theoretical prediction is that forward-looking incumbents, with uncertain prospects of re-election, find it optimal to follow relatively shortsighted fiscal policies, and that this hurts capital accumulation. Our econometric estimation, using U.S. data, finds a statistically significant link between electoral uncertainty and policy instruments and in turn macroeconomic outcomes. |
| URI: | http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/19057 |
| Other Identifiers: | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19057 ppn:503749419 |
| Appears in Collections: | EconStor |
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