Forecast errors and the macroeconomy: a non-linear relationship?

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://dspace.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/18349

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DC Field	Value	Language
dc.creator	Fritsche, Ulrich	-
dc.creator	Döpke, Jörg	-
dc.date	2005	-
dc.date.accessioned	2013-10-16T06:59:35Z	-
dc.date.available	2013-10-16T06:59:35Z	-
dc.date.issued	2013-10-16	-
dc.identifier	http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18349	-
dc.identifier	ppn:491235356	-
dc.identifier.uri	http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/18349	-
dc.description	The paper analyses the reasons for departures from strong rationality of German business cycle forecasts based on annual observations from 1963 to 2004. We rely on forecasts from the joint forecast of the so-called "six leading" forecasting institutions in Germany. We test for a non-linear relation between forecast errors and macroeconomic fundamentals and find evidence for such a non-linearity for inflation forecasts. Evidence from probit models further suggests that some macroeconomic fundamentals – especially monetary factors – correlate to large positive or negative forecast growth and inflation forecast errors.	-
dc.language	eng	-
dc.publisher	Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Berlin	-
dc.relation	DIW-Diskussionspapiere 498	-
dc.rights	http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen	-
dc.subject	E37	-
dc.subject	E32	-
dc.subject	C53	-
dc.subject	C52	-
dc.subject	ddc:330	-
dc.subject	forecast error evaluation	-
dc.subject	non-linearities	-
dc.subject	business cycles	-
dc.title	Forecast errors and the macroeconomy: a non-linear relationship?	-
dc.type	doc-type:workingPaper	-
Appears in Collections:	EconStor

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