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http://dspace.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/18322| Title: | Estimating and Forecasting Aggregate Productivity Growth Trends in the US and Germany |
| Keywords: | E24 C22 E23 C32 E37 E30 ddc:330 |
| Issue Date: | 16-Oct-2013 |
| Publisher: | Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Berlin |
| Description: | This paper addresses the issue of estimating and forecasting productivity growth trends in the US and Germany from the perspective of a business cycle researcher who wants to use the available information in time series of aggregate labor productivity to derive a model for short- and/or long-term forecasts of labour productivity. We will use stability tests and a deterministic model with structural breaks that is estimated using the methods mentioned in Hansen (2001). The methodological approach also draws on Gordon (2003) using a Kalman filter specification. We discuss the implications of unit-root assumptions for long-term forecasts and argue in favor of a near unit-root modelling. That implies a convergence of productivity growth rates in both countries within the next 15 years. |
| URI: | http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/18322 |
| Other Identifiers: | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18322 ppn:481682031 |
| Appears in Collections: | EconStor |
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