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http://dspace.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/18084| Title: | The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov-Switching Model Estimation |
| Keywords: | F36 F31 C22 ddc:330 Currency crises Self-fulfilling speculation Markov-switching models Währungskrise Devisenspekulation Fester Wechselkurs Schätzung Argentinien |
| Issue Date: | 16-Oct-2013 |
| Publisher: | Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Berlin |
| Description: | Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from a recession for years, the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis surprised most observers. This paper analyzes the role of fundamentals and self-fulfilling speculation in the Argentinean crisis. Arguing within a theoretical model of a fixed exchange rate system that allows for multiple equilibria, we show that the crisis, while being associated with weak and deteriorating fundamentals, cannot be explained by these macroeconomic factors alone. Estimating a univariate Markovswitching model, this paper shows that shifts in agents? beliefs did indeed also play a crucial role. |
| URI: | http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/18084 |
| Other Identifiers: | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18084 ppn:37186206X |
| Appears in Collections: | EconStor |
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