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http://dspace.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/18050| Title: | Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany? |
| Keywords: | C22 E32 C25 ddc:330 Business cycle leading indicators probit model McFadden's R2 Markov switching models Konjunkturindikator Konjunkturprognose Prognoseverfahren Schätzung Deutschland |
| Issue Date: | 16-Oct-2013 |
| Publisher: | Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Berlin |
| Description: | Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching models were taken into consideration. The overall results indicate that the interest rate spread, the long-term interest rate as well as some monetary indicators and some survey indicators can help predicting turning points of the business cycle. |
| URI: | http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/18050 |
| Other Identifiers: | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18050 ppn:367006200 |
| Appears in Collections: | EconStor |
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